If I
have to comment about the India-ASEAN summit that took place on
20-21st
December 2012, in New Delhi, I can easily say without any doubt, that
it is a summit clearly under a
shadow. No ASEAN leader mentioned it in his speech, but it is obvious
that everyone was acutely aware of the elephant in the room. In
speeches, the Philippines and Vietnam referred to tensions in their
region. Philippines Vice President Jejomar Binay said “At this
time of rising concerns about maritime issues, the need to maintain a
high level of maritime security and freedom of navigation offers
us... an opportunity for enhanced cooperation.” Indonesian
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was perhaps more explicit when he
told the summit that closer maritime cooperation with India was
needed because 70 percent of the world’s traffic in petroleum
products passes through the Indian Ocean from the Middle East to East
Asia. He said further: “While the center of the global economy is
shifting eastward, the Indian and Pacific Oceans have been and will
become even more important in providing the vital sea routes for
trade and commerce.”
India
is hosting this ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit in New Delhi to mark
the 20th anniversary of the ASEAN-India dialogue partnership and the
10th anniversary of ASEAN-India Summit-level meetings. The theme of
the summit is 'ASEAN-India Partnership for Peace and Shared
Prosperity'. And it aims at strengthening ties across diverse areas
like trade, energy, security and cultural connectivity. The prime
ministers of Singapore, Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam, the
presidents of Myanmar and Indonesian, and the vice president of the
Philippines are attending the summit along with representatives of
Thailand, Laos, and Brunei.
Someone
may ask; why this sudden anxiety about the maritime security? The
answer is not too difficult to find. The South China Sea has become
Asia’s biggest potential military flashpoint. The core of the
problem is the possibility of huge oil reserves in the region, which
are being explored in their territorial waters by Vietnam and the
Philippines at present. China claims a huge looping area out of the
South China Sea as its own. This claim conflicts directly against
sovereignty claims by Vietnam and the Philippines as well as
Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. In November 2012, China announced a
plan to board and search ships that illegally enter what it considers
its territory in the South China Sea. A dangerous proposition that
could lead to naval clashes.
China
also managed to breach the unity of ASEAN over this issue by using
Cambodia, which was promised a largesse including a $100 million
loan to set up Cambodia's largest cement plant. As a result, the
ASEAN summit ended in acrimony in November 2012 over China’s
assertiveness in the South China Sea, with its leaders failing to
agree on a concluding joint statement.
India
is obviously relishing this moment, as countries of South East Asia
are looking to India now for maritime security. India has no
territorial claim in the region, yet it has interests. It is
exploring for oil and gas with Vietnam in an area contested by China.
Also there is also a plan to ship liquefied natural gas from Russia
through the Malacca Straits in future. It is interesting to note that
few weeks ago, India’s navy chief made a statement that he was
ready to deploy vessels to the South China Sea to protect exploration
interests there, if needed.
In the
vision statement agreed at this New Delhi summit, India and the
10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have set
their sights on a new “strategic partnership” that would bring
closer political, security and economic cooperation, with special
importance for the need for freedom of navigation, a contentious
issue because of competing claims with Beijing over parts of the
South China Sea.
It is
obvious that ASEAN considers the presence of naval ships of few
major powers in south China sea as a guarantee for their safety. They
have already convinced US, which has started stationing a larger
force of marines in south east Asia. Presence of India in Southeast
Asia would provide them greater additional safety against being
dominated by China.
India
has great plans for improving connectivity with south east Asia. It
is pushing for quick implementation of the India-Myanmar-Thailand
Trilateral Highway and its extension to Laos and Cambodia. It is also
planning to launch a second route that would run from India through
Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia to Vietnam. These plans may take time to
fructify. Since annual trade between ASEAN and India has nearly
doubled in four years and India’s growing economic clout makes it
appealing as a balance to other Asian powers. The emphasis on
maritime security gains importance.
As
China scare looms large over south east Asia, India may find that
it's twenty year old, Look east policy, is finally beginning to gain
traction. The New Delhi summit underscores India’s growing role in
one of the world’s fastest-growing regions, South East Asia.
22
December 2012
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