About 200 Km west of Palawan island,
located at the southwestern end of the Philippine archipelago, two
scattered groups consisting of few rocks, project out from the deep
waters of the South China Sea. During low tides, much of the reef is
above water. It even encloses a small lagoon. The rocks, known as
“First Thomas Shoal” and “Second Thomas Shoal (also known as
Ayungin),” are part of “Spratly islands” group and have gained
in recent years some importance from a strategic point of view. Out
of these two reefs, “Second Thomas Shoal is considered as a
strategic gateway to Reed Bank, believed to be rich in oil and
natural gas. Philippines claims that Reed bank tabletop, where all
the oil and gas fields are supposed to be located, is within the
country’s 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone.
There have been claims and
counterclaims of littoral countries of the region, on these reefs,
which are a part of Spratly islands. In
1999, in a sudden action, Malaysia occupied Erica Reef and
Investigator Shoal. Responding to this, Philippines purposefully ran
aground two ships, BRP Sierra Madre and BRP Benquet, on Ayungin
(Second Thomas) Reef and Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal during the same
year. China, claiming sovereignty over Spratly Islands, requested
the Philippines to remove the grounded ships. The Philippines
immediately replied that it will do so whenever it can remove the
ships. However, the one on Scarborough Shoal, was the only ship that
was removed. On the contrary , considering the importance of the
Shoal as a gateway to reed bank, Philippines actually assigned
soldiers to take shelter on the grounded ship at Ayungin Reef and
they continue to do so even today.
In 2010, Manila awarded an
Anglo-Filipino consortium a license to explore for gas on Reed Bank
but drilling stalled last year due to the presence of Chinese ships.
Manila says that Reed bank is within the coutries 200 nautical miles
exclusive economic zone, whereas Chinese say that it is part of
Spratly Islands over which China has undisputed sovereignty.
This week, all of a sudden, three
Chinese ships including a naval frigate appeared on the horizon and
moved up to a distance of 9 Km from the old and rusting transport
ship, ran aground by Philippines and over which a dozen Philipino
marines have been stationed. This action immediately ringed alarm
bells all over ASEAN as many of the members already have running
territorial disputes with China. A Philippines spokesman asked the
Chinese to immediately pull out of the area as they were clearly in
the waters belonging to Philippines. Chinese refused to vacate from
this area saying that “Second Thomas Shoal” was part of the
Sparatly Islands over which China had indisputable sovereignty.
So, here we go again. China having just
managed to create another international incident similar to what it
did on Depsang plains in northeast Ladakh on border with India, where
30 or 40 Chinese troops encroached 27 Km on India's side of Line of
control making it somewhat difficult to comprehend the logic and
motive behind these repetitive Chinese actions.
An Analyst from Institute of Southeast
Asian studies says: “ Tension at Second Thomas Shoal could prove
more dangerous than last year's standoff at unoccupied Scarborough
Shoal, given the presence of Philipino troops.” He adds: “It is
hard to imagine China using force to gain control.... but some kind
of blockade to drive out the Philipines troops would be a
possibility. There is a real chance of escalation or miscalculation.”
This feeling was echoed by another senior Philippine navy officer,
who said that the Philippines believed China was trying to pressure
it to leave the shoal. He added :“We don’t want to wake up one
day with fresh structures sitting near our navy ship there. We have
to bite the bullet and strengthen our position there or risk losing
the territory.” China says, it was merely acting to prevent
illegal fishing in Chinese waters.
There is another striking similarity
between this incident and Depsang plain incident in Ladakh, which
happened weeks before Chinese premier Li Keqiang was to visit India
and hold important bilateral discussions. Here also, the incident has
taken place just before US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel meets his
Asia-Pacific counterparts at the so-called Shangri-La Dialogue in
Singapore at the weekend. The South China Sea is on the agenda of the
regional security forum. Also Chinese President Xi Jinping will be
visiting the United States in June. A Chinese military think tank
have already put the blame for the incident on the US “pivot”
back to Asia which had “shattered” the relative calm of the South
China Sea, warning of crisis ahead.
After Philipino protests, Chinese
frigate and some fishing boats have cleared the area but two Chinese
marine surveillance ships remain near “Second Thomas Shoal.”
The flashpoint may not create fire at
this point of time, just like Depsang plains incident, but potential
of conflict remains creating much tension in South-East Asia and
ASEAN.
31 May 2013.
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