Government
of India announced a policy document in the year 2000, called
National Population Policy 2000, which hoped that by 2010 Total
Fertility rate or TFR of the country (TFR measures average number of
children born to a woman during her entire reproductive period) would
be brought down to net replacement level or 2.1 children per woman.
The
population data published in the year 2000 indeed looked very dismal.
TFR for the country was still hopelessly high at 3.2. Every sixth
person on the globe in that year was an Indian and by the turn of
this century every fifth living person would be an Indian. India
added about 1 Million persons to its population every fortnight and
added one Australia every eight months. By 2045 or earlier, India
would overtake China as the world’s most populous nation.
Interestingly the data for the country showed great variations with
just four states, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajsthan and Uttar Pradesh
contributing as much as 49 percent of the increase in population
It
turned out that that by 2010, though the replacement level had come
down, it was not good enough. The TFR in 2010 was 2.6. In 2011 it
further came down to 2.5. In next 2 years or by 2013 it has fallen to
2.3, though just 0.2 points away from reaching replacement levels,
yet far from the 2010 target. The 2013 data for the Sample
Registration Survey (SRS), conducted by the Registrar General of
India, the country’s official source of birth and death data, was
released this week.
Unfortunately,
the great disparity between states continues. Though the SRS shows
that the Total Fertility Rate – the average number of children that
will be born to a woman during her lifetime – in eight States has
fallen below two children per woman, Nine states, all of them in the
north and east, with possible exception of Gujarat, which is in the
west, are spoiling the overall picture as they are still much above
the magic figure of 2.1, below which populations begin to decline. As
anticipated, all BIMARU states, which are always on lower rungs of
development, such as Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Asaam and
Uttar Pradesh are in this negative list.
On the
other hand in many states the replacement ratio has fallen to 1.8,
which means that the populations have actually started decreasing, a
sure symbol of literacy and development. West Bengal now has India’s
lowest fertility, with the southern States, Jammu & Kashmir,
Punjab and Himachal Pradesh. Among backward States, Odisha too has
reduced its fertility to 2.1. Another worrisome or distressing fact
emerges from this data. We are likely to see much higher level of
migration from the northern states to the south, a fact which has
proven to be a hot potato for the western states like Maharashtra.
If
India wants to achieve more equitable basis pf population, it is
obvious that much greater attention needs to be given to raising
literacy levels and development of BIMARU states, otherwise they
would continue to bomb the national objectives.
26th
December 2014
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